The broader NSE Nifty too slipped by 9.50 points, or 0.09 per cent, to end at 10,118.25
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will launch the Unified Lending Interface (ULI) nationwide in due course, aiming to transform India's lending sector, similar to how the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) revolutionised the payments ecosystem, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday.
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
JSW Steel was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.68 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were major laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday did a four-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction to reduce liquidity in the banking system as the overnight money market rates fell below the repo rate, said market participants. The repo rate is 6.50 per cent. Banks parked Rs 18,750 crore at the auction against a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore at a weighted average rate of 6.49 per cent.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
After delaying liberalisation for foreign banks by over a year due to global financial meltdown, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday decided to review its position by September this year in the wake of improving conditions worldwide.
At the same time, banking sources close to the development said the central bank could raise its growth target from 5-6 per cent to 6.5 per cent to accommodate the impact of an improving monsoon and the growth impetus provided through various fiscal and monetary stimulus packages earlier in the year. The cautious outlook on interest rates is primarily to accommodate rising inflationary expectations in the economy.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
The government is likely to name a successor to Rajan sometime this month
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, inflows minus outflows, declined sharply in April-August this year to $2.99 billion from $18.03 billion in the same period last year on moderation in global activities and a rise in repatriation. The Reserve Bank of India's data (October 2023 bulletin) said FDI in India was $7.28 billion and FDI by India, that is money invested abroad from the country, was $4.28 billion in April-August 2023. As for 2022, FDI in India was $22.79 billion and FDI by India was $4.76 billion in April-August.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finance, TCS, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, M&M, L&T and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
Ahead of the monetary policy review, RBI governor D Subbarao is expected to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on October 23.
The RBI on Thursday said banks' gross NPA ratio has fallen to a sever-year low of 5 per cent and the banking system remains sound and well-capitalised. In the 26th issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), the RBI also said the global economy is facing formidable headwinds with recessionary risks looming large. The interplay of multiple shocks has resulted in tightened financial conditions and heightened volatility in financial markets, it pointed out.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the government and the central bank are in discussion with South Asian countries to have cross-border trade in rupee. He also said the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is in trial phase and the RBI is moving very carefully and cautiously on digital rupee launch. After the successful launch of the wholesale pilot, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 1, last year, began its retail CBDC pilot project.
The RBI expects change, presumably commencing in the next Budget, but must hold its current view until this actually happens.
With the RBI infusing Rs 7.5 lakh crore in liquidity -- and possibly more in the future -- the short- to medium-term corporate bond market is expected to benefit.
With inflation under control, the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) job is to support growth because the economy had recovered well from the lows in the initial months of the pandemic, according to the panel's members, who met in the first week of this month. The minutes of the meeting show the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in his statement said: "Given the sharp moderation in inflation along with a stable near-term outlook, monetary policy needs to continue with the accommodative stance to ensure that the recovery gains greater traction and becomes broad-based." Ashima Goyal, external member of the MPC, said: "The current macroeconomic configuration and its expected future evolution imply there is space for the MPC to continue to support the revival of the economy with inflation remaining in the target band."
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
Urjit Patel panel wanted all members to be appointed by RBI
Arun Jaitley on Sunday said monetary policy plays an important role in stimulating growth.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
Market participants must appreciate that staying cautious is a virtue for central bankers and should not expect a sudden reversal in the formal monetary policy stance.
Inflation breached the upper end of the RBI's comfort level of 4 per cent plus-minus two percentage points.
The Reserve Bank will go for a "dovish pause" at Wednesday's policy review announcement amid developments such as a rise in inflation, government maintaining the inflation target band and a likely impact on growth due to local lockdowns on rising COVID-19 infections, analysts said on Monday. Economists at American brokerage Bofa Securities said price stability, growth and financial stability will become the prime focus areas for the central bank going forward. "The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) should deliver another dovish pause on Wednesday," it said. The policy announcement, the first for the fiscal, will come days after the government maintained the RBI's target to ensure inflation to be within 2-6 per cent band for five more years.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
Although there is headroom for further monetary policy action, at this juncture it is important to keep our arsenal dry and use it judiciously: RBI's Das.
Inflation target remains 5% for January 2017.
The uncertainty created by the jump in COVID-19 infections and localised lockdowns prompted RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and other members of the rating setting panel MPC to unanimously vote for status quo in interest rates and an accommodative policy stance to support growth, as per minutes of the meeting released on Thursday. "The need of the hour is to effectively secure the economic recovery underway so that it becomes broad-based and durable," the Governor said during the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which ended on April 7. The renewed jump in COVID-19 infections in several parts of the country and the associated localised and regional lockdowns add uncertainty to the growth outlook, he observed, as per the minutes of the meeting released by the central bank.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
As deputy governor, Patel headed the RBI panel to draft the monetary policy report, which became the basis of the ongoing reforms at the apex bank
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
Calls for decisive fiscal policy action to revive growth
Stuart A Davis, the chief executive officer at HSBC India, expects the Reserve Bank of India to increase repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points in its quarterly monetary policy review on July 27, as concerns over accelerating inflation and uncertain monsoon linger.
In the last three years, public sector banks have responded to the RBI's policy rates more strongly than private banks.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel said that the recent excise duty cut by the government on petrol and diesel will help contain inflation.
